Tomorrow, Mike Huckabee is planning to announce his second Presidential run. Cillizza notes that his strength is that he can articulate why an average person would be a Republican -- "I'm a Republican because I don't want to wait for the government to help me." His other strength noted by Cillizza is that he can argue, as former governor of Arkansas, that he took on the Clinton machine and won.
However, the problems that Cillizza mentions include his lack of money and organization. For instance, he won handily in Iowa, only to get only 11% of the vote five days later in New Hampshire back in 2008. The other is that he will have a problem securing the religious right vote; for instance, Cillizza notes that the reason that he didn't win South Carolina was because Fred Thompson had not pulled out of the race, allowing John McCain to squeak by with a triumph.
I would argue that the problem of splintering the religious right vote will come back to haunt Huckabee even further. Since 2008, Huckabee has gotten his name out there as a FOX News radio talk show host. That gives him the sort of name recognition that he did not necessarily have in 2008. But there are several other religious right candidates who are angling for votes, including Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, and Mike Pence. That means that the South Carolina and Iowa votes could be split even further.
Another factor that Cillizza doesn't discuss but which is an important factor is the fact that the GOP has operated as an aristocracy, meaning that you won't get nominated unless it is your turn. For instance, in 1980, it was Ronald Reagan's "turn" because he had mounted a strong primary challenge to President Gerald Ford in 1976. In 1988, George H.W. Bush had "paid his dues" and was the candidate then. In 1996, Bob Dole had paid his dues and it was his turn. In 2000, it was George W. Bush. In 2008, John McCain, who had finished a strong second to Bush in 2000, moved to the front of the line. In 2012, it was Mitt Romney. In 2016, I predict that it will be Jeb Bush, seeing that he is working his family's connections and calling in favors.
A third factor that I suggest will hurt Huckabee is his working class background. Back in 2008, when Huckabee first ran, Citizens United had not been decided yet. Mitt Romney, the first GOP candidate since that decision, was born into wealth and has always been part of the 1%. Jeb Bush was also born into a wealthy background and has extensively worked his father's connections as well as his own. Citizens United has given people like Romney and Bush, who have a lot of wealth and connections, a much bigger advantage in fundraising than they would have without it. Unless it is overturned, it will be a lot harder for someone like Huckabee to get their foot in the door and be taken seriously by 1%.
Huckabee will likely try to portray himself as a "compassionate conservative" in the mold of George W. Bush in 2000 and Carly Fiorina this time around. For example, in his book "From Hope to Higher Ground," he writes:
My experience dealing every day with real people who were genuinely affected by policies created by government gave me a deep understanding of the fragility of the human spirit and vulnerability of so many families who struggled from week to week. I was in the ICU at 2 a.m. with families faced with the decision to disconnect a respirator on their loved one; I counseled fifteen-year-old pregnant girls who were afraid to tell their parents about their condition; I spent hours hearing the grief of women who had been physically and emotionally clobbered by an abusive husband; I saw the anguish in the faces of an elderly couple when their declining health forced them to sell their home, give up their independence, and move into a long-term-care facility; I listened to countless young couples pour out their souls as they struggled to get their marriages into survival mode when confronted with overextended debt.
But this compassion does not sit well with certain key power brokers in the GOP. Cillizza explains that Huckabee's brand of conservatism does not have the blessing of Grover Norquist:
Then there's the problem that Huckabee will have in 2016 that he didn't in 2008: He won't sneak up on anyone. Part of Huckabee's success in Iowa in 2008 was that the bigger candidates largely ignored him until it was too late. That won't happen this time around. Fiscal hawks -- led by the Club for Growth -- have been itching to expose what they believe is Huckabee's less-than-stellar record on taxes and spending as governor of Arkansas. He won't be spared those attacks this time.
And Huckabee's compassion does not apply to certain parts of the world.
He believes in war with Iran:
"I pray our next president will have the good sense to know we don't trust the Iranians, but we can trust our friends, the Israelis — and we can trust the leadership of other countries in the Middle East, who recognize that you cannot create peace when you chant 'Death to America' in the streets of your cities," Huckabee said.
And Huckabee supports Israel's policy of perpetual warfare against the Palestinian people and supports the Israeli right's calls for creation of a "Greater Israel." From the same link:
He said that the idea of a two-state solution with Israel and the Palestinians was "the nuttiest thing I've ever heard.
"One of those parties believes the other one should not exist," added Huckabee, who said he first visited Israel 42 years ago. "Let's quit pretending there is such a thing in that particular country. "In the land of Judea and Samaria, there should not be a question as to whether or not that is going to belong to Israel — because it does belong to Israel."
Left unanswered is what he would do with the several million Palestinians living there. These views are deeply chilling for those of us who believe in peace, freedom, and prosperity for all. While he may put populist window dressing on conservative views, his calls for more wars abroad show that he is part of the same tired old politics as usual that Americans rejected at the polls in 2008 and 2012.