Back in 2007 and 2008 there were two people who seemed consistently correct in their pre-election analysis in the long primary season and then the General. One of them was Nate Silver and his 538, but his analysis was (and is) mostly about the numbers and very little about the why. The better analysis to me always came from Al Giordano over at The Field.
Perhaps it is his time living outside of the US that gives his work insights that most folks just miss as they get swept up in CW gasbag talking points. Or maybe it is his work as an organizer. Whatever the reason, he is just a hell of a reporter, observer and analyst of our political system.
A couple of days ago he had a solid post that should be required reading. Al gets straight to the massive uncertainty, why it it happening and who will be at fault if the massive GOP wave comes to past.
To the jump...
Now keep in mind who Al is talking about here. If you have already voted early and are actively working to GOTV, he is not talking about you. If you like to complain, haven't voted yet (and might not vote on Tuesday) and/or you are not planning on doing any GOTV work... well, then I think he is talking about you.
Here is what he said:
You may have heard that Democrats have a problem this November and are at risk of losing control of the US Congress in Tuesday's elections. Whose fault is that? I’m going to tell you the whole truth even though many of you won’t like hearing it: If the House goes down, it’s going to be the fault of white people.
No, I’m not talking about Republicans or Tea Party bigots. I’m talking about white Democrats and liberals who don’t turn out to vote in midterm elections. Hey liberal pundits and bloggers: We have met the enemy and it is us. Look no farther than the mirror to find a scapegoat for next Tuesday’s electoral debacle if it happens.
Al goes through and explains his argument point by point and he makes a convincing case as far as I am concerned. He also tells you what to do in the next few days if you want to fight the predicted red tide:
For the Democratic Senate and House candidates in overwhelmingly white states and districts, the last and only hope is the ground war: that their field organizations and that of Organizing for America can drag enough first time voters from 2008 and other young and Hispanic folks who don’t usually vote in midterm elections and get them to the ballot box (or bring the mail-in ballot to them). Organizing for America is targeting these potential voters and also you. They want you to help make seven million phone calls this week, something, they remind, that you can do from home or work and they’ll set you up with the list, the script or even invite you to a phone bank location in your area where you can do it together with other interesting people like you who aren’t just sitting around complaining and worrying.
There is no doubt that Democrats will suffer losses next Tuesday. Almost always, the party in the White House loses some Congressional seats during the midterms. That’s the contrary nature of so much of the American electorate: If I can’t find my socks this morning, it’s the fault of the party in power. But whether Tuesday is the electoral blow-out that so many in the media are predicting, or closer to a normal midterm result, is not up to Obama, and will not be because of "what Obama did or didn’t do," and anybody who comes around next Wednesday or beyond trying to sell that used car will get interrogated from this corner: How many phone calls did you personally make? How many voters did you personally turn out? Hit the phones, or pound sand. Armchair presidents need not apply. Between now and Tuesday, we’re all Mr. and Mrs. President. That’s how democracy was designed to work. The only missed opportunity this week will be your own.
As I prepare to make calls today and head north to PA on Monday and Tuesday to knock on doors and GOTV, I couldn't agree with Al more. Each of us can do something to GOTV between now and when the polls close on Tuesday. You could get out and knock on doors or sign up and call from home.
There are lots of ways to get involved in getting voters to the polls. You can sign up to GOTV here, or here or here or just your contact a local GOTV effort and join in the fray. This calling tool will help you make calls to help GOTV in races accross the Nation.
Whatever happens we will survive. Hell, we survive the Bush years and we will survive Tuesday. And as we all know that when the dust settles on Wednesday the regular bitching and moaning will begin anew with fresh cries of doom and (of course) self-serving finger pointing. But, I think Al is spot on with this point: if you couldn't find the time to work on GOTV (or at least fucking vote), then your opinions on politics and other matters of the day are really not important.
Now is the time to do something. Now is the time to matter. Now is the time to GOTV.
For those who are already in the game, I thank you. For those who are still sitting on the sidelines, I say each of you have the power here. Use it or lose it.
Voting is a sacred duty. It is soaked in blood of the named and unnamed people who were killed fighting to give you that right. I find myself with very little tolerance for people who do not respect the personal responsibility of voting and blame their indifference on somebody else.
You have the power of the vote. If you do not use it, you lose the right to bitch. Obama's policy decisions do not take away your power. Neither do the teabaggers. You give it up if you don't vote. If you call yourself a progressive activist you give up your ideals if you don't vote AND/OR don't work to GOTV. That is Al's point and I agree with it.
Cheers
dengre
[cross posted from Balloon-Juice]