Um.
It looks like recanvassing has brought Bill Owens's lead down from 5,335 to just 3,000; the race will now be decided on the absentee ballots, of which there are 10,200 - military (see: most likely conservative) and overseas ballots. Worse: the state never declared a winner in the election.
UPDATE: TPM is reporting that there are only 5,400 absentees left to count, and Owens' lead is holding steady at 3,176...
This may not be the three-alarm fire that it seemed to be at first; perhaps just a bit of a nail-biter - at least until all the absentee ballots are counted.
From the Syracuse Post-Standard:
Washington -- Conservative Doug Hoffman conceded the race in the 23rd Congressional District last week after receiving two pieces of grim news for his campaign: He was down 5,335 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted on election night, and he had barely won his stronghold in Oswego County.
As it turns out, neither was true.
But Hoffman’s concession -- based on snafus in Oswego County and elsewhere that left his vote undercounted -- set off a chain of events that echoed all the way to Washington, D.C., and helped secure passage of a historic health care reform bill.
Democratic Rep. Bill Owens was quickly sworn into office on Friday, a day before the rare weekend vote in the House of Representatives. His support sealed his party’s narrow victory on the health care legislation.
Now that last part, here in italics, is, thankfully, false. Mark Weiner, of the Post-Standard, who wrote this piece, has apparently forgotten that the bill was passed 220-215 - even without Bill Owens's vote, it would still have passed, and with one vote to spare (thanks to Rep. Joseph Cao).
Now a recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman, 66,698 to 63,672, according to the latest unofficial results from the state Board of Elections.
In Oswego County, where Hoffman was reported to lead by only 500 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted election night, inspectors found Hoffman actually won by 1,748 votes -- 12,748 to 11,000.
The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which about 10,200 were distributed, said John Conklin, communications director for the state Board of Elections.
Under a new law in New York that extended deadlines, military and overseas ballots received by this coming Monday (and postmarked by Nov. 2) will be counted. Standard absentee ballots had to be returned this past Monday.
This next bit is something I wasn't aware of until today:
Conklin said the state sent a letter to the House Clerk last week explaining that no winner had been determined in the 23rd District, and therefore the state had not certified the election. But the letter noted that Owens still led by about 3,000 votes, and that the special election was not contested -- two factors that legally allowed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to swear in Owens on Friday.
"We sent a letter to the clerk laying out the totals," Conklin said. "The key is that Hoffman conceded, which means the race is not contested. However, all ballots will be counted, and if the result changes, Owens will have to be removed."
Got that?
Now Hoffman, who campaigned against the health care reform bill, is carefully watching as the 23rd District race tightens and he is left to wonder if he conceded too soon...
Ryan, while acknowledging that Hoffman’s chances of pulling off a come-from-behind victory are still remote, said the campaign is looking at its legal options.
"We’re basically watching and waiting," Ryan said. "We’ve been looking very closely at the recanvass. We’re going to see how this week shapes up, and then we’re going to determine what to do."
In other words: either a recount or a contesting of the election in court.
Or, for this reason, among others, a Doug Hoffman victory:
...the absentee ballots are likely to favor Hoffman because most were likely mailed before Republican Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign three days before the election.
UPDATE: Thanks to commenter, gchaucer2 for this slightly more comforting take from TPM:
The most up to date numbers from the Watertown Daily Times show the picture even bleaker for Hoffman than that. With only 5,400 absentees left to count, Owens' lead is holding steady at 3,176...
Even if Hoffman were to lead Owens among absentees, a question we simply don't know the answer to, the odds do not speak in favor of any sort of landslide win necessary to give him the race. So Owens can rest assured that in all likelihood, he won this race -- just by a slightly narrower margin than we first thought.